Bayes Theorem

P(H|E) = (P(H)P(E|H)

!

Examples:

• the medical test that’s 99% accurate, predicting a disease that’s 1 in 1 million, and you test positive for it… you’re actually still far MORE likely NOT to have it.

  

Source §

• Thinking Fast and Slow
• The Organized Mind
• YouTube
• Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs

Related §

• Base Rates