There is an imbalanced incentive in favor of making bold predictions.
One reason why so many pundits are prone to make bold predictions with high reported levels of confidence is that they are incentivized to do so. If you happen to correctly predict some crazy turn of events, say a company’s value skyrocketing the day before it happens, you’re regarded as some sort of market whizz genius to be celebrated. If your predictions are wrong, people are much less inclined to notice at all. This incentivizes levels of confidence in predicting unpredictable events high above what Objective Ignorance would dictate.