The scariest part of the Known/Unknown Matrix
Unknown unknowns are what you should be afraid of. When you’re taking on a task, project, or new responsibility - the unknown unknowns are what have the biggest chance of wrecking your chances of success (or even, your life).
When it comes to overspending, taking too long, or producing a shoddy product - the culprit can be the result of Known Unknowns. But when you quintuple your budget, take years instead of months, or aim to produce a result that’s impossible - it’s almost always because of an unknown unknown.
⚠️ Known Unknowns might cause overruns by several dozen percent, but unknown unknowns can cause overruns by several orders of magnitude.