When we plan tasks, we fail to account for setbacks - even when history shows they always happen.
The Planning Fallacy is a pitfall that’s most people fail to avoid before making plans for a task or project in which they are about to embark. Experienced project leads will, for whatever reason, consistently fail to recognize the fact that some form of setback will inevitably occur (Unknown Unknowns). They provide a “most likely scenario” plan that is actually closer to a “best case scenario” than a “most likely” one.
Marshall Goldsmith refers to the “Planning Self” vs the “Doing Self” in his book Triggers. He supposes the two have never met.
This fallacy, though, is not all bad. If we realized how hard everything actually is we would be less inclined to shoot for the moon. As such, the planning fallacy has lead people to undertaking foolish efforts, which ultimately produced miraculous results.
Avoidance
- Have a Buffer
- Follow a script. Use Checklists
- Look honestly at what happened the last time someone attempted something similar - you won’t do better (probably)
- Iteration is the Only Effective Method of Controlling Emergence